Kerry Wins Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucuses

Instapundit dismisses the notion, but I really think the tide started to turn when Dean didn't tack back to the center after the capture of Saddam. It was the perfect time to talk tough on national security without pissing off the anti-war left.

I also think that Dean and Gephardt did an extremely effective job of pointing out the deficiencies of each other and ultimately called a truce too late. By the time they backed off, Edwards and Kerry had already gained the momentum. I'm not sure who I'd favor if Dean doesn't rebound, but there's something appealing about Edwards. Gephardt might withdraw as early as this week, and Kucinich can't be far behind. I'm still very hesitant on Clark, he seems more like a Secretary of Defense than a President.

If Dean wins NH then that should stifle Kerry. Clark and Edwards are still wild cards for Feb 3. Lieberman will wait until after NH to drop out. NH should be more predictable with the straight vote. Iowa traditionally is a poor indicator.

That's my take. Obviously this is a big set back for Dean, now we'll see how he plays from behind.